Former President Donald Trump has been stung by a number of polls in recent days, including those suggesting his hush money felony conviction may be harming his 2024 election chances.
With less than five months to go, Trump and President Joe Biden still appear to be neck-and-neck in the race, although results of recent polls suggest that Biden may be ahead.
Newsweek has compiled at least four results from recent surveys that may be concerning for Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee. Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung told Newsweek in reaction to some of the polls: "President Trump continues to lead Crooked Joe Biden across polling averages nationally and in battleground states."
Biden Ahead in Swing States
A CBS News/YouGov survey released Sunday showed Trump narrowly ahead of Biden overall (50 percent to 49 percent).
However, when the results were broken down into the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—which likely will prove vital in determining who wins the 2024 election—the results were reversed and Biden came out on top (50 percent to 49).
The poll was conducted among 2,063 U.S. adults from June 5-7, just days after Trump was found guilty in a New York City court on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to trying to conceal hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election.
The survey included an oversample in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The margin of error was 3.2 percentage points among all adults and 3.8 points among registered voters.
Trump Trailing Among Independents
The same CBS News/YouGov poll found that Trump is slightly behind Biden in terms of support from the potentially key demographic of independent voters.
The survey found that Biden is preferred by independents over Trump by two points (50 percent to 48 percent). CBS News noted in its analysts of the data that there is some anti-Trump sentiment among the independents who are now backing Biden and that "a larger majority of them are doing so now to oppose Trump."
Elsewhere, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted from June 3-6 found that 41 percent of independents said they would support Biden in November, compared to 38 percent supporting Trump. Ten percent said they weren't sure who they'd vote for, with 11 percent saying they wouldn't vote at all.
Independents and undecided voters could prove pivotal come November, especially in the swing states where the margin of victory could be minimal.
The Yahoo News survey was conducted among 1,854 U.S. adults. The margin of error was 2.8 percent.
Biden Records Highest Score in 10 Months
In the same Yahoo News/YouGov poll, Biden (46 percent) overtook Trump (44 percent) to lead the race for the first time since October 2023.
The 46 percent score for Biden is his highest in Yahoo News/YouGov surveys since August 2023.
The results suggest that Trump's conviction may be putting some voters off the prospect of backing a convicted felon in November.
Trump accused the criminal case of being a politically motivated "witch hunt" that sought to hinder his chances of winning in November.
Voters Leaning More Toward Biden on Economy
A Financial Times/University of Michigan's Ross School of Business poll found that an increasing number of voters are saying they trust Biden to better handle the U.S. economy.
While Trump (41 percent) still leads Biden (37 percent) in what is widely considered the election's biggest issue, the Democrat has clawed back some of the Republican's lead from 11 points in February to just four in June.
"The Trump campaign should be worried about his shrinking lead on who voters trust with the economy because the economy is voters' biggest issue," said Erik Gordon of the Ross School of Business.
"Voters are more concerned with the economy than with other campaign issues like immigration and foreign policy. To win the election, you have to convince voters that you will do the best job with the economy."
The Financial Times/University of Michigan's Ross School of Business poll was conducted between May 30 and June 3 among 1,000 registered voters. The results have a margin of error of +3.1 percentage points.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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